CME generated by X1.6 solar flare to arrive on November 10

CME generated by X1.6 solar flare to arrive on November 10

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was generated by major X1.6 solar flare on November 7, 2014.

WSA/ENLIL modeling of the event shows a partially Earth-directed component that is expected to impact the geomagnetic field early to midday on November 10 causing active to major storm conditions (G1-G2, Minor to Moderate).

Potential impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced currents - power grid fluctuations can occur.

High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Yesterday's X1.6 flare was associated with a Type II (estimated velocity 602 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions along with a partial halo CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 18:08 UTC.

Partial halo CME visible on SOHO/LASCO C2. Image credit: ESA/NASA

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 110
Issue Time: 2014 Nov 07 1739 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2014 Nov 07 1653 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Nov 07 1726 UTC
End Time: 2014 Nov 07 1734 UTCX-ray Class: X1.6Location: N15E38
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

According to SWPC's Forecast Discussion published 12:30 UTC today, solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2(Minor-Moderate)) with a continued chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity over the next three days (November 8 - 10).  Region 2205 ('beta-gamma-delta') continues to be the likely source for significant flare activity.

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on November 8 and 9 with solar wind speeds in the 400-500 km/s range.

By early to midday November 10, a indirect impact from November 7 CME is expected to further enhance the geomagnetic field. WSA/ENLIL modelling of the event estimates solar wind speeds approaching 600 - 700 km/s.

WSA/ENLIL model showing expected CME impact on Monday, November 10, 2014.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 117
Issue Time: 2014 Nov 08 1039 UTCWATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 PredictedHighest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Nov 08: None (Below G1) Nov 09: None (Below G1) Nov 10: G2 (Moderate)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. Slight penumbral growth and consolidation was observed in the intermediate and trailing portions of Region 2205. The rest of the spotted regions are either stable or in decay.

New Region 2207 (S08E71, Hax/alpha) rotated around the SE limb and was numbered today.

Sunspots on November 8, 2014. Image credit: NASA SDO / HMI

2201 - Beta
2203 - Alpha
2204 - Beta
2205 - Beta-Gamma-Delta
2207 - Alpha

Yesterday's X1.6 event was the seventh X-class solar flare since October 19, 2014, and the first one to have an Earth-directed CME component.

Region 2205 is approaching the center of the disk and is capable of producing more strong to major eruptions on the Sun. More Earth-directed CMEs are possible in the coming days.

Featured image: SOHO/LASCO C3 image acquired on November 7, 2014 at 19:42 UTC. Image credit: NASA/ESA

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