Incoming CME to spark geomagnetic storming on July 13, 2013
Featured image: OVATION Aurora forecast map - North Pole (Credit: NOAA/OVATION)
We saw increased geomagnetic activity for past two days as Kp index reached K=5, G1 geomagnetic storming level, on July 10. A minor CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 9, 2013 at approximately 20:30 UTC and peaked during the early hours of July 10, 2013. G1 geomagnetic storm produced auroras in northern US states from Wisconsin to Washington after Bz component started to tipping southward.
Geomagnetic storming subsided by now, however, NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on July 13, 2013 due the arrival of incoming slow-moving CME that erupted on the July 9, 2013. This could spark bright auroras at high latitudes.
WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction
Solar activity remains at very low levels. There are currently only two numbered sunspots on the visible solar disk. Sunspots 1785 and 1787 are decaying as moving towards the west limb. Two new sunspots emerged in the southeast quadrant and should be numbered as AR 1791 and AR 1792. NOAA/SWPC forecasters estimate 30% chances of M-class solar flares in the next 24 hours.
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