M9.8 solar flare erupts from geoeffective Region 3500, Earth-directed CME likely
Image credit: NASA SDO/AIA 131, Helioviewer, The Watchers
A very strong solar flare measuring M9.8 erupted from Active Region 3500 at 19:50 UTC on November 28, 2023. The event started at 19:35 UTC and ended at 20:09 UTC. Earth-directed CME is very likely.
- This could be the 4th and the strongest CME expected to impact Earth over the next couple of days.
- A G2 – Moderate Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect for December 1.
A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 854 km/s was detected beginning at 19:59 UTC. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the Sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with a flare event.
Additionally, a 10cm Radio Burst (Tenflare) with a peak flux of 720 sfu, was associated with the flare event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
Region 3500 is located at the center of the solar disk, making Earth-directed CMEs very likely.
Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over SW USA, Central America, W South America and the Pacific Ocean at the time of the flare.
A full halo CME can be seen in NASA C2 coronagraph imagery at 20:12 UTC, SWPC forecasters said at 00:30 UTC on November 29. “Analysis and modeling of this event is ongoing as of the time of this writing, but an Earth-directed trajectory is likely.”
Multiple CMEs were produced on November 27, with three of these appearing to have Earth-directed components.
The first arrival is a potential glancing blow or near-Earth proximity passage beginning early November 30 (UTC).
The later CMEs are anticipated to arrive at Earth early December 1 (UTC) as at least glancing blows.
As a result, SWPC issued a G2 – Moderate Geomagnetic Storm Watch for December 1.
Potential impacts: The area of impact is primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
- Induced currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
- Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
- Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
- Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Teo Blašković founded The Watchers in 2011 and edited it until 2026, covering seismic and volcanic activity, extreme weather, space weather and near-Earth objects. Articles on this page are his archive.
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