Large filament eruption produces partial-halo CME, impact to Earth expected on November 5

A large filament eruption centered near N30W30 was observed in H-alpha imagery around 05:00 UTC on November 3, 2023. A G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for November 5 and G2 – Moderate for November 6.

The eruption was associated with a partial-halo coronal mass ejection, expected to hit Earth by mid-day November 5.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through the majority of Saturday, November 4. Late Saturday through Sunday, glancing blow effects from the October 31 CME are possible with unsettled to active levels, coupled with unsettled to active levels on November 6 from possible effects from the November 3.

Direct Hit at long last! A #solarstorm launches while in the Earth-strike zone today. NASA prediction shows impact by mid-day November 5. This storm will be sandwiched by glancing blows before & fast solar wind after, making #aurora possible to mid-latitudes until November 10! pic.twitter.com/wMAYTy2Rdn

— Dr. Tamitha Skov (@TamithaSkov) November 4, 2023

Update

17:32 UTC, November 4

A G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for November 5 and G2 – Moderate for November 6

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

“Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and a Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS) are now in the forecast,” SWPC forecasters said.

“Recent CMEs have departed the Sun and may reach Earth with at least glancing blows. Earliest influences may be as soon as late on November 4. The most recent CME is more likely to have an Earth-directed component and may reach Earth afterward. Additionally, a CH HSS will likely affect Earth as soon as November 8 with effects possibly lasting through November 10. All of this activity makes for an interesting forecast challenge and expected conditions are still being evaluated, but geomagnetic disturbances are becoming more likely from November 4 – 10.” Continue to visit our webpage for the latest information and forecast updates.”

References:

¹ Forecast discussion – Issued: 2023 Nov 04 1230 UTC – Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Featured image credit: NASA SDO 191, Helioviewer, The Watchers. Acquired at 04:54 UTC on November 3, 2023