A significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms, violent tornadoes, and heavy rain is expected across the U.S. Plains on Monday, May 20, 2019.
A potent spring storm system is expected to produce an outbreak of severe weather in parts of the Plains today, NWS warns. Very large hail, damaging winds, flash flooding, and large/violent tornadoes are possible.
Image credit: NOAA/GOES-East. Acquired 14:50 UTC, May 20, 2019
AccuWeather meteorologists said they are concerned that this latest outbreak will be even more significant than the days of severe weather late last week and over the weekend.
Around midday Monday (LT), NWS SPC highlighted a small corridor from the northeastern part of the Texas Panhandle to central Oklahoma in a 45 percent probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes to occur within 15 km (25 miles) of a point.
This is the first time a 45 percent tornado area has been issued by the SPC since April 14, 2012, AccuWeather meteorologist Renee Duff noted.
"The greatest threat for large and devastating tornadoes will exist from southern Kansas through west-central Oklahoma and eastern parts of the Texas Panhandle. Residents in this area should be prepared to take cover in a basement or storm shelter at a moment's notice."
"It is likely that the storms will develop rapidly and begin producing tornadoes within 30-60 minutes after initiating," Duff said.
SPC AC 201626
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO WESTERN AND
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...
An outbreak of tornadoes, some potentially long-track and violent,
is expected today into this evening over portions of northwest Texas
into western and central Oklahoma. More isolated but still
potentially dangerous severe weather, including tornadoes and
destructive winds and hail, is possible in surrounding parts of
Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas.
A tornado outbreak is forecast to unfold this afternoon and evening
across parts of northwest TX and western/central OK. Moisture
continues to stream northward across the region, with dewpoints in
the 70s yielding very high afternoon MLCAPE values of 3000-5000
J/kg. Meanwhile, shear profiles are also rapidly increasing as a
50-60 knot southerly low-level jet strenghens across the area. This
is leading to a rare combination of extreme instability and large
hodographs as depicted on forecast soundings throughout the region.
Given the weak capping inversion, strong low-level theta-e
advection, and approaching large-scale forcing, all signs point to
the development of numerous intense supercells this afternoon across
the MDT and HIGH risk areas. Any storm that persists in this
environment will pose a risk of strong tornadoes, very large hail,
and damaging winds. The corridor of greatest concern, including a
threat of long-track and potentially violent tornadoes, will extend
from the southeast TX Panhandle into western and central Oklahoma.
Multiple rounds of severe storms are expected to affect these areas,
with new storms forming this evening over west TX and spreading
across north TX and much of OK overnight. These storms will
maintain a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes through the night in some areas.
Relatively strong heating is occurring over New England and eastern
NY, where a moist and moderately unstable air mass is present.
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form in this area,
and spread eastward toward the New England coast during the late
afternoon. Steepening low level lapse rates and westerly flow aloft
will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and some hail in the
Featured image credit: NOAA/GOES-East. Acquired: 17:10 UTC, May 20, 2019
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