The Head of Space Research Laboratory at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences in St. Petersburg, Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov, announced the new Little Ice Age started at the end of 2015.
According to the new research, our Sun has been in the declining phase of the quasi-bicentennial variation in total solar irradiance (TSI) since 1990. At the same time, the Earth has absorbed a lower amount of TSI, which has been left uncompensated by the planet's longwave radiation into space, due to the thermal inertia of the oceans.
The phenomenon resulted in a negative average annual energy balance and a long-term adverse thermal condition, a trend which is expected to continue.
Results imply the new Little Ice Age started after the maximum phase of the solar cycle 24, at the end of 2015.
The solar grand maximum is expected during the solar cycle 27, plus or minus 1, which will occur about 11 years before or after the year 2043.
A phase of deep cooling in the ice age is expected to happen about 11 years before or after the year 2060.
The observed gradual weakening of the Gulf Stream will lead to stronger cooling in western Europe and eastern portion of the US and Canada.
"Quasi-bicentennial cyclic variations of TSI together with successive very important influences of the casual feedback effects are the main fundamental causes of corresponding alternations in climate variation from warming to the Little Ice Age."
Reference:
- Evidence-Based Climate Science (Second Edition) - Chapter 17 – The New Little Ice Age Has Started (2016) - H.I. Abdussamatov - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-804588-6.00017-3
Featured image: Thin ice by Alyssa Black (CC - Flickr)
