Potential M7.6 earthquake in Istanbul, study

A potentially large earthquake of M7.6 may hit Istanbul in due course, according to the new study led by Xavier Le Pichon, a french geophysicist.

A study based on data collected aboard the French research ship Le Suroit after the 1999 Gölcük earthquake suggest the earthquake may soon affect Istanbul.

“An article on the discovery of potential earthquakes was released by the Le Suroit research ship last month. The Marmara fault line, which will prompt an earthquake, is described by Turkish seismologists as a single, thoroughgoing strike-slip fault system,” said Le Pichon.

“We are brushing it off due to issues such as political turmoil and regional conflicts, but the earthquake will affect Istanbul, and it is approaching,” he said. 

According to scientists, the Northern Anatolian Fault was closing in on the Marmara province in 1999, and it moved on a single line.

“We observed that the ratio of the movement on this fault line is 20 millimeters per year, and we added that the last crack on this fault line occurred after two major earthquakes in 1766 that occurred in Istanbul. We also noticed that we are expecting an earthquake with a 7.6-magnitude in the next 30 years,” he said.

Another study, dating to 2001 confirmed the information on the fault line: “A large number of researchers said these data were not adequate to explain, back in those days."

Featured image: Istanbul, January 4, 2016. Image credit: Andrey (Flickr-CC)