El Niño reaches 2.0°C on NOAA’s index, a tenth of a degree behind 1997–98 at the same point, as forecasters expect it to challenge the all-time record this winter
El Niño reached +2.0°C on NOAA’s Relative Oceanic Niño Index for August–October 2026, a tenth of a degree behind 1997 at the same point. NOAA gives an 83% chance it surpasses every event since 1950 by the end of the year.
