Hurricane “Beryl” to pass near or over Jamaica, life-threatening winds and storm surge forecast
Dangerous Hurricane “Beryl” is moving toward Jamaica and is expected to pass near or over the island nation later today (LT), July 3, 2024. Beryl’s center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands later tonight or early Thursday, July 4, and approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Thursday night.
- Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac –preparations to protect life and property in these areas should be rushed to completion.
- Hurricane Watch is in effect for the south coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d’Hainault and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche.
- Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti and the south coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d’Hainault.
- Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City.
After making landfall over the island of Carriacou, Grenada on July 1, leaving a trail of destruction and several people dead and missing in Grenada and Venezuela, Beryl briefly intensified into a category 5 hurricane. It is now a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and while weakening is forecast during the next day or two, it is expected to be at or near major hurricane intensity while passing near Jamaica later today and the Cayman Islands tonight.
At 06:00 UTC on July 3, Beryl’s center was located 400 km (250 miles) ESE of Kingston, Jamaica, and the system was moving WNW at 35 km/h (22 mph). Its minimum central pressure was 946 hPa.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the ‘center of Beryl will move rapidly across the central Caribbean Sea and is forecast to pass near or over Jamaica later today. The center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday and approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night.’
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 65 km (40 miles) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 295 km (185 miles).
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of Jamaica within the warning area around midday Wednesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday, with winds reaching tropical storm strength late this afternoon, complicating or hindering preparations.
Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by late Thursday while tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the south coast of Hispaniola today, and they are possible along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday or early Friday.
Storm surge brought by Beryl could raise water levels by as much as 1.8 to 2.7 m (6 to 9 feet) above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. For the Cayman Islands, storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.6 to 1.2 m (2 to 4 feet) above normal tide levels.
In Hispaniola, storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.3 to 0.9 m (1 to 3 feet) above ground level along the southern coast.
Along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane watch area, storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.9 to 1.5 m (3 to 5 feet) above ground level. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Hurricane “Beryl” is expected to produce rainfall totals of 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches), with localized maxima of 300 mm (12 inches), across Jamaica and the southwestern Haitian Peninsula through late today.
In the Barahona Peninsula in the southwest Dominican Republic, Beryl will produce rainfall amounts of 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches) with isolated amounts of 250 mm (10 inches). Isolated totals of 150 mm (6 inches) or more are anticipated across the mountainous terrain in the central Dominican Republic.
This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding and mudslides.
Beryl is also expected to produce rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm (2 to 4 inches) with localized maxima of 150 mm (6 inches) over the Cayman Islands today into Thursday. Over the Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm (2 to 4 inches) with localized maxima of 150 mm (6 inches) in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula Thursday into Friday.
Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the southern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica, and are expected to impact the Cayman Islands later today through midweek. Swells will continue to affect the Windward and Leeward Islands over the next day or so.
These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Beryl is the second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and the strongest Caribbean hurricane this early in the calendar year on record.
Beryl is only the third Caribbean category 4+ hurricane before August 1 on record. The other two were Dennis and Emily in 2005, according to CSU meteorologist Dr. Philip Klotzbach.
On July 1, Beryl made history as the second hurricane on record to track within 120 km (75 miles) of Grenada — after Ivan in 2004.
On July 2, Beryl became the 12th Category 5 hurricane in the eastern Caribbean on record, with the orders Lake Okeechobee (1928), Carol (1953), Inez (1966), David (1979), Allen (1980), Ivan (2004), Dean (2007), Felix (2007), Matthew (2016), Irma (2017), Maria (2017).
Given current National #Hurricane Center intensity forecast, #Beryl is poised to break record for most Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) by individual Atlantic storm named in June this weekend. ACE is integrated metric accounting for duration & intensity:https://t.co/GS9ik1a2cN pic.twitter.com/rE8x9IGxPo
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 2, 2024
“One reason why Hurricane Beryl intensified to a Category 5 hurricane over two weeks earlier than any other Atlantic Category 5 on record is due to extremely high ocean heat content levels,” Klotzbach said. “Caribbean ocean heat content today is normally what we get in the middle of September.”
Later in the day, Beryl’s maximum sustained winds increased to 265 km/h (165 mph) — making it the strongest July Atlantic hurricane on record. This broke the previous record of 257 km/h (160 mph) set by Hurricane “Emily” in 2005. The prior record for the earliest calendar year Atlantic hurricane with 265 km/h (165 mph) was set by Hurricane “Allen” on August 5, 1980.
“Given the current National Hurricane Center intensity forecast, Beryl is poised to break the record for most Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) by individual Atlantic storm named in June this weekend,” Klotzbach said. ACE is an integrated metric accounting for duration and intensity.
References:
1 Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 18A – NWS/NHC – 06:00 UTC on July 3, 2024
Featured image credit: Hurricane “Beryl” at 08:40 UTC on July 3, 2024. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers
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