Faint, asymmetric halo CME combined with CH HSS to hit Earth’s magnetic field on July 21

faint-asymmetric-halo-cme-combined-with-ch-hss-to-hit-earth-s-magnetic-field-on-july-21

Although solar activity was at low levels on July 17, 2016, geoeffective Active Region 2567 ('beta-gamma') managed to produce a long duration C1 solar flare. The event peaked at 06:42 UTC, producing a faint, asymmetric halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).

Analysis from the July 17th CME suggests a possible impact from the slow moving plasma cloud sometime early on July 21.

Speeds analyzed by the SWPC indicated a relatively slow moving CME, approximately 450 km/s, with anticipated timing to coincide with the negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

24 hours of Sun on July 17, 2016. The CME was produced by Region 2567 (at the center) at 06:42 UTC. Imagery courtesy of NASA's SDO

Earth's magnetic field is currently at quiet levels and is expected to remain like that through the rest of the UTC day.

Quiet to unsettled conditions are then expected, with an active period likely on July 20, due to effects from a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS.

Active levels with a slight chance for G1 – Minor storm conditions are possible early July 21 with the arrival of the anticipated CME, combined with continued CH HSS effects (CH750 on the image below).

STAR coronal hole and active region map – July 18, 2016. Credit: SDO/solen.info

Meanwhile, solar activity is at low levels and is expected to remain like that over the next three days (July 19 – 21). There is a chance (25%) for M-class flares due primarily to the flare potential from Regions 2565 and 2567.

Region 2567 is still directly facing our planet. If it manages to produce a CME today or over the coming days, it will be Earth-directed.

Sunspots on July 19, 2016. Credit: NASA/SDO HMI

2565 – Beta
2566 – Alpha
2567 – Beta
2569 – Beta

Featured image: NOAA/SWPC, NASA/SDO. Annotation: TW

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