Tropical Storm "Pawan" about to make landfall over Somalia

Tropical Storm

Tropical Cyclone "Pawan" is slowly weakening on its way toward Somalia. Landfall is expected late November 6 into November 7, south of Eyl, an ancient port town in the northeastern Nugal province. Pawan is the 8 named storm of the 2019 North Indian Ocean cyclone season.

Tropical Cyclone "Pawan" (06A), located approximately 926 km (575 miles) south of Salalah, Oman, and has tracked southwestward at 15 km/h (9 mph) over the past 6 hours, JTWC forecasters noted at 21:00 UTC on December 5, 2019.

Tropical Cyclone "Pawan" (top), TC 02S (bottom left), and Tropical Cyclone "Ambali" on December 4 and 5, 2019. Credit: METEOSAT-8

Animated enhanced infrared imagery reveals a partially exposed low-level circulation center under upper-level convection. The initial position is supported by a bullseye 17:34 UTC, December 5 METOP-A ASCAT pass, lending high confidence to the initial position.

The initial intensity of 65 km/h (40 mph) is hedged on the lower end of a consensus of subjective Dvorak and automated current intensity estimates ranging up to 72 km/h (44 mph).

The cyclone remains in an area of moderate vertical wind shear and strong poleward flow aloft. The persistent southerly flow aloft has caused the majority of the flaring convection to be limited to the northern quadrants of the system.

Tropical Cyclone "Pawan" (top), TC 02S (bottom left), and Tropical Cyclone "Ambali" at 06:30 UTC on December 5, 2019. Credit: METEOSAT-8

However, the system should maintain its strong outflow over the next 24 hours, offsetting the persistent vertical wind shear and maintaining system strength until landfall, expected late December 5 into December 6.

As the system moves over land, it will quickly dissipate as it interacts with the terrain. 

Featured image: Tropical Cyclone "Pawan" at 06:30 UTC on December 5, 2019. Credit: METEOSAT-8

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