Polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS sparks geomagnetic storming

polar-connected-positive-polarity-ch-hss-sparks-geomagnetic-storming

A high-speed solar wind stream is affecting our planet today, causing geomagnetic storming. G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm watch is in effect.

Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a Co-Rotating Interaction Region (CIR) in advance of a polar-connected, positive polarity, coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) just after 15:00 UTC, December 4 when total field increased to 13 nT and solar wind speeds to 380 km/s. By 00:30 UTC today, solar wind speeds increased to near 600 km/s and total field to 14 nT. The parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced through December 7 under CH HSS influence. Solar wind data from the previous rotation and STEREO suggests wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s are likely.

The geomagnetic field reached G1 – Minor levels at 10:17 UTC today due to the onset of a CIR in advance of a positive polarity CH HSS. It is expected to be at unsettled to G1 storm levels with G2 storms likely on December 5 and unsettled to G1 storm levels on December 6. Quiet to active levels are expected on December 7 as effects begin to slowly diminish.

SWX Overview December 5, 2017

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next 3 days while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Estimated Kp, GOES Hp, Electron Flux, Proton Flux

Detected coronal holes December 5, 2017Polar connected CH - December 5, 2017

Meanwhile, solar activity is at very low levels and is expected to continue at very low levels over the next 3 days.

The solar disk is spotless.

SWPC Warnings and Alerts

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 413
Issue Time: 2017 Dec 05 1417 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2017 Dec 05 1420 UTC
Valid To: 2017 Dec 05 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 – Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

——————————————————————————–

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3388
Issue Time: 2017 Dec 05 1417 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3387
Valid From: 2017 Dec 04 1620 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2017 Dec 06 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

——————————————————————————–

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1444
Issue Time: 2017 Dec 05 1417 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1443
Valid From: 2017 Dec 05 0818 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2017 Dec 06 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft – Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

——————————————————————————–

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1202
Issue Time: 2017 Dec 05 1408 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2017 Dec 05 1407 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 – Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft – Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

——————————————————————————–

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1201
Issue Time: 2017 Dec 05 1017 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2017 Dec 05 1017 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 – Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft – Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Featured image credit: NASA AIA, LMSAL

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