Solar activity has increased to moderate levels during last 24 hours with an impulsive M1.0 solar flare (R1-Minor) at 08:55 UTC on June 11, 2015. The source was an area of enhanced emission on the Sun's east limb.
Current SDO imagery reveals a cluster of sunspots rotating onto the SE limb in the vicinity of the M1 flare, SWPC noted in their Forecast Discussion published 12:30 UTC on June 11, 2015.
Numerous low to mid-level C-class activity occurred in last 24 hours, primarily from Region 2360 (N14W48, Cai/beta-gamma), the agency said. The largest C-class activity was a C4/Sf from Region 2360 observed at 02:43 UTC. The region continued its slow decline exhibiting leader and intermediate spot decay.
Sunspots on June 11, 2015. Image credit: ESA/PROBA2/SWAP.
Region 2365 (S12E01, Cao/beta) indicated some consolidation in the leader portion with slight intermediate spot growth. Region 2366 (N17W02, Dao/beta) had mature penumbra growth with some leader spot decay.
The remainder of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay.
SWPC's forecasters expect solar activity to be low with a chance for M-class activity over the next three days (June 11 – 13, 2015) primarily from areas of enhanced emission on the east limb.
SDO AIA 304, 211, 171 on June 11, 2015 at 12:23 UTC. Image credit: NASA/SDO/LMSAL.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels in last 24 hours with a peak flux of 4603 pfu at 17:35 UTC on June 10. It is expected to remain at moderate to high levels from June 11 – 13 in response to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects.
Solar wind speeds remained in the mid 500 km/s to lower 600 km/s range with total field values ranging between 2nT and 6 nT. The Bz component was variable between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominantly negative (towards) sector.
Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly diminish on June 11 and into early June 12 as CH HSS effects wane.
However, a glancing blow from the June 9 CME is expected to impact the geomagnetic field approximately midday on June 12, resulting in further enhancement to solar wind parameters. A slow recovery from CME effects is expected on June 13.
WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction. Credit: NOAA/SWPC.
Unsettled to active geomagnetic field levels are expected to persist through early June 13 followed by a slow recovery from CME effects.
Featured image: SDO AIA 304, 211, 171 on June 11, 2015 at 12:23 UTC. Image credit: NASA/SDO/LMSAL.
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