Russian scientist predicts 100 years of cooling

In a study of cyclic behavior of the Sun, Russian scientists now predict 100 years of cooling. IceAgeNow reports that these are not just any scientists. This forecast comes from astrophysicist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the Russian segment of the International Space Station, and head of Space Research of the Sun Sector at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The Russian scientists began by looking at a paper published by J. A. Eddy* in 1976 that documented the correlation between sunspot activity and corresponding large – and disruptive – climate changes on Earth.  Disruptive because the changes frequently lead to economic and demographic crises that affected the existence of entire nations.

Conducting research similar to Eddy’s, Russia’s Eugene Borisenkov discovered a quasi 200- year cycle of global cooling during the past 7,500 years that correlates to times of sunspot minima similar to the Maunder minimum. Abdussamatov points that these were also times when any industrial influence was non-existent.  Our planet warms and cools in predictable 200-year cycles corresponding to 200-year variations in the size and luminosity of the Sun, the scientists found. Previous global warmings – of which there have been many – have always been followed by deep cooling. The 200-year variations in sunspot activity and total solar irradiance (TSI) are the dominating reason for climate change.

In whole, the solar cycles are a key to our understanding of different cyclic variations in the nature and society.” Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of Space Research of the Sun Sector at the Pulkovo Observatory

Existence of the 11-year and 200-year solar cycles of identical and synchronized variations of luminosity, sunspot activity and diameter of the Sun is one of the most reliably ascertained facts in solar physics. The study of physical processes on the Sun not only gives us an understanding of a large number of astrophysical questions, but also of the questions of geophysics, meteorology, biology and medicine. All energy sources used by humanity are linked to the Sun. The heat and light of the Sun ensured the development of life on the Earth, formed the deposits of coal, oil, gas etc.

All life on the Earth and its future conditions directly and almost in whole depend on the total solar irradiance (TSI).”Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of Space Research of the Sun Sector at the Pulkovo Observatory

Check out the theories of Croatian scientist Vladimir Paar!

"Measure temporary variations of shape and diameter of the Sun, as well as fine structure and dynamics of the granulation on the Service module of the Russian segment of the International Space Station" by Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov




TheWatchers recommended readings:

Don't Miss it! Climate Depot's Factsheet on 1970s Coming 'Ice Age' Claims (ClimateDepot)

1975 New York Times: "Scientists Ask Why World Climate is Changing, Major Cooling May Be Ahead", May 21, 1975 – By Walter Sullivan

1974 Time Magazine: "Another Ice Age," June 24, 1974

Mitchell, J. Murray, Jr. (1975). "A Reassessment of Atmospheric Pollution as a Cause of Long-Term Changes of Global Temperature."

1978: “Trends and Variations of Mean Temperature in the Lower Troposphere,” AMS Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 106, No. 3 (March), pp. 413-416. - Harley, W. S.

NASA warned of human caused coming 'ice age' in 1971 – Washington Times – September 19, 2007

1975 Newsweek: "The Cooling World," Newsweek. April 28, 1975 By Peter Gwynne


Joe King 8 years ago

Yes. Chinese scientists recognised that climate change follows the sun cycle in the 14th century - 600 years ago. That was before the mini-ice age in the 1600-1700's. The IPCC admitted leaving the sun out of their models/reports because they did believe (politics?) that solar radiance was constant - did not correlate to C02. But C02 does not correlate to temperature because c02 has increased when temperatures dropped from the 1940's to the 1970s. The IPCC told New Scientist (UK magazine) in Sept 2010 they will report on solar radiance in 2013. I hope its snows heaps in Tassie until then because Tassie can't produce enough electricity - its sent by cable from Victoria under the Strait. Bob Brown has bankrupted hist State of energy.

JustMEinT 8 years ago

O My Goodness - has anyone informed Bob Brown and Juliar Gillard of these Russian Scientific Facts? According to them the science is in, it has been signed into law and the nation of Australia is being taxed because they are responsible for climate change. Now they will have to ammend their laws to include a tax level on the sun as well...... Geesh this is getting complicated. Now if these facts are corrects we will all need to stock up on thermal underwear which will also be taxed...... Brrrrrrrrrr

popeyesmotto 8 years ago

The article above is terribly incomplete. No data are included that support any of the arguments. Please include more data and graphs that include the data sets inclusive of a longer timeline.

Bert Molloy (@popeyesmotto) 8 years ago

Look at: Abdussamatov H.I. On the decrease of the flow of solar radiation and a decrease in the global temperature of the Earth to the state of deep temperature drop in the middle of the 21st Century // Proceedings of KrAO, 2007, Vol. 103, № 4, p. 292 - 298. or search for:THE SUN DEFINES THE CLIMATE Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. Sc. Head of Space research laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory, Head of the Russian/Ukrainian joint project Astrometria (translated from Russian by Lucy Hancock)

Andyj (@popeyesmotto) 8 years ago It looks complete enough to me.

co2hound 8 years ago

The above research is very probably correct. The sun has the greatest affect upon the average temperature of the earth's surface. It is the greatest source of heat and light. We are, should be, sliding into the next ice age from a plateau of the remarkably steady climate of the last 10K years or so. All of the advances we have made as a species have occurred during this time. Climatology looks at trends over 30 years minimum. So over the last 30 years we have not seem temps decline slightly as they should be doing as we go into the next Ice Age. We see a substantial increase. Why? Well it's not the sun, the clouds, cosmic rays, the PDO, volcanoes, water vapour and etc. Each of these has a role but none are the controller. By the process of elimination we are left with CO2 ... the greenhouse effect.

Andyj (@co2hound) 8 years ago

CO2 absorbs 3.5% of the whole of the blackbody spectrum. Papers were written in the 1860's on global warming. This was at a time when World use of energy was a tiny percentage to what it is now. If CO2 was such a greenhouse gas then Mars would have warmer nights. Venus at 0.7AU would not be liveable at an altitude that gives one atmosphere in pressure. Instead its around 25C. If there was a true greenhouse effect then heating would continue ad infinitum. It does not. Global warming is moot. If there was this theoretical "positive feedback" then all our previous warm periods would of ended life on the Earth many times over. The Vostock ices cores have proven a dozen times this is not, nor ever the case. The cyclic addition of CO2 that is added to the atmosphere has been proven beyond doubt that the biggest amount by far is coming from the sea. It contains 18x more CO2 than air and after successively higher Solar activity has warmed the water. This excessive populace need the atmosphere plants breathe to feed ourselves. There is a God! :))

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