A major solar flare, measuring X1.0 at its peak, erupted at 20:25 UTC on October 2, 2022, from Active Region 3110. The event started at 19:53 and ended at 20:34 UTC.
A Type II Radio Emission, with an estimated velocity of 1 157 km/s, was associated with this event. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
While Region 3110 is moving away from the center of the disk, it’s possible this CME has an Earth-directed component.
The same region produced M8.7 solar flare at 02:21 UTC today, associated with Type IV Radio Emission and 10 cm Radio Burst.1
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the Earth side of the Sun:
Multiple CMEs occurred since October 1.2
The first was a CME off the W limb, associated with an approximate 22 degree long filament eruption, centered near N15W14 beginning at 12:04 UTC on October 1.
The second was produced during the M5.8 solar flare at 20:10 UTC on October 1 and the third during the abovementioned M8.7 at 02:21 UTC today.
Preliminary modeling of the first and second CME show the potential for a glancing blow late on October 3 to early October 4, however, confidence is low due to imagery gaps.
Three CMEs from October 1 have been analyzed, SWPC forecasters noted at 00:30 UTC on October 3.
Model output suggests the final CME overtaking the two earlier CMEs en route, and arriving at earth at around 00:00 UTC on October 4:
Modeling of the CME produced during the X1.0 solar flare indicates a miss.
1 M8.7 solar flare erupts from AR 3110 – The Watchers – October 2, 2022
2 Forecast Discussion Issued: 2022 Oct 02 1230 UTC – Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Featured image credit: SDO/AIA 131
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