Geomagnetic storming reaches G2 - Moderate levels

Geomagnetic storming reaches G2 - Moderate levels

Our planet is under the influence of coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) for the third day in a row. The geomagnetic field was unstable, with isolated periods of G1 - Minor storm levels during the past two days and then increased to G2 - Moderate levels at 14:59 UTC on October 13.

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 2 MeV flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 2,810 pfu at 04:00 UTC today. It is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through October 15 due to CH HSS influences. 

Solar wind parameters were also indicative of a CH HSS regime. Toal field strength varied from 5 to 9 nT. The Bz component also varied and had a few prolonged periods of southward direction. Solar wind speeds ranged from 500 - 550 km/s while the phi angle was mostly positive.

3-day K-index October 13, 20177-day K-index October 13, 2017

Solar wind speed is expected to increase further today as the positive polarity extension of the north polar CH HSS connects more fully with Earth. Elevated solar wind speeds are anticipated to continue into October 14 and 15, but with decreased IMF strength.

Isolated periods of G2 - Moderate storming are possible today and into tomorrow.

Under G2 - Moderate levels, area of impact is primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Power grid fluctuations can occur and high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Satellite orientation irregularities may occur as well as increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites. HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes and aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Coronal hole and active region map - October 12, 2017

Coronal hole and active region map - 23:45 UTC on October 12, 2017. Credit: Solen.info

Meanwhile, solar activity is at very low levels with no spots on the visible disk and no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery.

SWPC alerts, watches and warnings

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 802
Issue Time: 2017 Oct 13 1722 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 14:  G1 (Minor)   Oct 15:  None (Below G1)   Oct 16:  None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

***

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1180
Issue Time: 2017 Oct 13 1559 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2017 Oct 13 1559 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

***

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3343
Issue Time: 2017 Oct 13 1513 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3342
Valid From: 2017 Oct 11 0150 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2017 Oct 14 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

***

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 453
Issue Time: 2017 Oct 13 1500 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2017 Oct 13 1459 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Featured image credit: SWPC

Comments

No comments yet. Why don't you post the first comment?

Post a comment

Your name: *

Your email address: *

Comment text: *

The image that appears on your comment is your Gravatar