Sunspots 1261 and 1263 produce pair of M-Class flares – Expecting geomagnetic storm

An M1.1 Solar Flare took place around Sunspot 1261 at 03:37 UTC Wednesday morning followed an hour later by a M1.7 flare around Sunspot 1263 at 04:32 UTC. Stay tuned to this website for any further developments.

A long duration M1.4 Solar Flare took place around Sunspot 1261 at 06:19 UTC early Tuesday and also blasted a small and earth directed Full-Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs) into space. There will be a chance for minor geomagnetic storming within 72 hours.

Sunspots 1261 and 1263 continue to produce C-Class flares and there will remain the chance for an M-Class flare. Sunspot 1261 which is in prime position for possible earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), continues to grow in magnetic complexity and it could be only just a matter of time before a moderate to strong Solar Flare takes place. (SolarHam)

The magnetic field of sunspot 1263 harbors energy for powerful X-class solar flares. Because the sunspot is turning to face Earth, any such eruptions in the days ahead would likely be geo-effective.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity 3-day Forecast:

Solar Activity Forecast:Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a slight chance for a major event for the next three days (03-05 August). Region 1261 and Region 1263 are both capable of producing a major event and both have a slight chance of producing an energetic proton event.

Geophysical Activity Forecast:The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (03 August). Day two is expected to be predominately quiet with chance a for isolated active conditions late in the day. Day three (05 August) is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm conditions. The increase in activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of the coronal mass ejection from 02/0616Z. Due to the enhanced environment there is a chance for the 10 MeV protons to cross event thresholds with shock arrival.

 

FLARE	0-24 hr	24-48 hr
CLASS M	65 %	65 %
CLASS X	10 %	10 %

 

Mid-latitudes

	0-24 hr	24-48 hr
ACTIVE	05 %	40 %
MINOR	01 %	15 %
SEVERE	01 %	05 %

High latitudes

	0-24 hr	24-48 hr
ACTIVE	05 %	40 %
MINOR	01 %	15 %
SEVERE	01 %	05 %

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, SPWC and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2011 Aug 02 2200 UTC

GIF MOVIES
LASCO/C2	LASCO/C3	EIT 304A
60M	65M	65M
1/4 Resolution  14M	1/4 Resolution  15M	1/4 Resolution  5.4M
EIT 195A	EIT 171A	EIT 284A
23M	21M	23M
1/4 Resolution  6.0M	1/4 Resolution  5.5M	1/4 Resolution  6.1M

These GIF movies are courtesy of the LASCO/NRL SOHO team.

 

Sergey Gaydash, the head of the Center for Space Weather forecasting of the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation of Russian Academy of Sciences, reported about solar flare, that occurred in the Sun on Tuesday, and will cause a geomagnetic storm on Earth on August 5, 2011. Solar wind is now moving toward Earth and a magnetic storm is expected on Earth on August 5 2011 at 0300 UT.

Since the solar flare was a M1-class, the expected average intensity of the geomagnetic storm, because, as we know, solar flares, depending on the thickness of their X-ray radiation is divided into five major classes: A, B, C, M and X. Minimum class A0 corresponds to the lowest output power, the most power are solar flares of class X, a flare of class C and M correspond to the average output power.

Geomagnetic storms arise from the fact, that the Earth’s magnetic field captures the charged solar wind particles (protons and electrons), that are closer to the Earth, moving along the lines of the magnetic field of the earth and form the so-called radiation belt. The flow of charged particles from the Sun is moving constantly, but especially the increase in solar flares. In periods of so-called solar maximum, the sun flares occur, which have resulted in the surrounding space is thrown a huge amount of charged particles, some of which moves at a speed of 400-1000 km / sec. Such a strong flow of charged particles perturbs the Earth’s magnetic field, because of this rapidly changing characteristics of the Earth’s magnetic field, which leads to a magnetic storm.

Geomagnetic storms in Earth’s magnetosphere have different effects on living organisms, as well as on production infrastructure. Even with the research of Richard Carrington in 1859, it was observed, that the sources of geomagnetic storms on Earth are solar flares, and 30 years ago, after the discovery of a strong solar disturbances, called coronal mass ejections, it was found that the immediate cause of geomagnetic storms on Earth are disturbed solar wind streams in the Earth’s magnetosphere, which lead to the need to generate the geomagnetic storm orientation of the magnetic field of the Earth. The sources of these streams of charged particles, in turn, are emissions from coronal mass solar and coronal holes on the Sun. Also, besides the magnetic storms on Earth, associated with high solar activity, leading to coronal mass ejections, are often observed moderate magnetic storms on Earth, which also occur during periods when the sun is in a recession of its activity. Such magnetic storms were mainly recorded in the periods of minimum solar activity cycle and found their periodic repetition every 27 days, a period associated with the solar rotation period of 27 days.

Geomagnetic storms can affect many areas of human activity, is particularly affected radio, navigation of spacecraft, therefore, monitoring of magnetic storms and forecast their occurrence is of great importance at the present time. Since the solar wind is the motion of charged particles, the interaction of the flow of charged particles from Earth’s magnetosphere cause major disturbances of the geomagnetic field, which in turn affects the technological infrastructure on Earth. On our website we have previously reported, that large solar flares have previously led to problems with power supply of individual cities and entire regions and describe individual instances of such negative effects of magnetic storms on the Earth’s technology infrastructure. Also, we have already described the fact of negotiations U.S. President with the Prime Minister of Great Britain, and the parties agreed on a joint controlled shutdown of entire cities and even entire regions of their countries, in the event of a major magnetic storms, caused by solar flares of unusual intensity.  (HainanWel)