El Nino will get more extreme

El Nino will get more extreme

El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cold phases, respectively, of the pattern known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eastern half of the tropical Pacific. Forecasting how this pattern will behave a few months in advance is now routine. However, the task of predicting its long-term behavior is hampered by the relatively short history scientists have of monitoring it.

Now an international team of scientists has peered back into the history of this climate pattern by analyzing trees up to 1 100 years old.

The scientists analyzed the North American Drought Atlas, which has data from centuries-old trees to deduce the history of drought in North America, particularly the southwestern United States. They used this data to reconstruct the intensity of El Niño and La Niña events over the past 1 100 years.

During El Niño, the unusually warm surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific lead to changes in atmospheric circulation, causing unusually wetter winters in the southwestern United States. Unusually cold eastern Pacific temperatures during La Niña lead to drought.

The team's findings agreed well with sea surface temperature records that scientists had already collected in the tropical Pacific over the course of 150 years. They also closely matched data on ENSO captured in both living corals and ones that lived centuries ago around the Palmyra Atoll in the central Pacific. This suggests the tree ring data reflect how ENSO has behaved for the past millennium.

Over the centuries, the intensity of this climate pattern has been highly variable, with decades of strong El Niño and La Niña events and decades of little activity. The least variability happened during the Medieval Climate Anomaly in the 11th century, whereas the highest variability occurred between the 18th and 20th centuries. Many of the El Niño and La Niña events of the last millennium were more intense than the ones scientists have direct data on. Overall, the world has seen a trend of increasing swings to extremes over the past millennium, researchers said.

These changes in the intensity of ENSO appear to be linked to the tropical Pacific climate. Samples taken from lake sediments in the Galapagos Islands, the northern Yucatan in Mexico and the Pacific Northwest suggest that the eastern-central tropical Pacific climate swings between warm and cool phases, each lasting from 50 to 90 years. During warm phases, El Niño and La Niña events were more intense than usual, and during cool ones, they deviated little from the long-term average.

 

Given the current phase of global warming, which is causing temperatures in the tropical Pacific to rise, the world might see "enhanced ENSO variability — more severe El Niños and La Niñas, and more extreme climate conditions around the globe. However, forecasts of how ENSO might behave in the future are complicated by a host of interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, and better climate models are needed before scientists can arrive at such predictions.

The scientists detailed their findings in the May 6 issue of the journal Nature Climate Change. (OurAmazingPlanet)

 

Comments

Paul Felix Schott 8 years ago

Read well and study on your own after you have read this. This is not a game or joke our Sun gives off a Solar Wind all day year round if you live in the State of Alaska you see it in the sky above what a sight it is going through our Earth’s Magnet Polls of the North and the South, North Poll. Its Called the Northern Lights or the Aurora Borealis. The day will come when you will be able to see it all over Earth as in the year 1859 Solar Flare. Two Astronomer’s Hodgson and Carrington told the World that the Solar Flare made a Geomagnetic Storm reach Earth in hours not days. Back then it gave new meaning to Reach For The Skies from Telegraph Operators. For hours sparks flew from the key board. Even after the Batteries were disconnected. Our Sun’s UV Rays will get stronger as each passing day go’s by, read and i will tell you why. The Great big forest have be striped from most of the Earth for Greed of Money by the Wicked. The trees our are Main Source of Oxygen on this Plant. The Forest Trees scrubs the Pollution out of the air and makes Oxygen from the rain and dirt that it grows in. The Forest Trees do more then just make Oxygen they stop Soil Erosion, just Look at the 1930 Dust Bowl. Greed by our Government taxes led farmers to clear cut all their Forest and farm all the land they were being Tax on. They had to farm it to pay for the Taxes. Why leave the Trees when food crop makes Money. This Did not Help the Depression that effected most all Worldwide. The Pollution and CO2 Carbon Dioxide go into the Tree Bark as a shield from most bugs so they do not eat the tree. Less Forest less Oxygen this is why the moon. That has no Oxygen is very cold on the side with out Sun Light,And hot as ever on the side with Sun Light. Way too cold and too hot to live there. With no blank of Oxygen to lessen or reduce the Sun’s UV Rays and Solar Wind they are deadly there on our Moon. Every Mt. Climber and Aircraft Pilot knows the higher you go the thinner the Oxygen and colder it gets. Just spend a night on a Mt. top above 13,000 feet with no Sun Light and you will see or should i say feel the cold stinging any of your exposed skin. If you are new to Mt. Climbing stay below 10,000Ft. The Astronauts and the Cosmonauts and Fighter Pilots that i have been with for years know this very well, and the Radiation Hazards to humans at High Altitudes. Soon the Sun’s Solar Wind and UV rays will be way to strong for most to go out in the Sun Light for even a short time. The Geomagnetic Storm to come and the Bad Weather Storms well you have not seen nothing yet and the Sea Level is Rising the Oceans. And there shall be famines, and pestilences, and Earthquakes, in divers places such as was not from the beginning of the Creation. The last 30 years On Earth we have broke all high temp records and the temp it is still going up. All the Worlds Ice Glacier are melting at an Accelerating Rate. The Glaciers and Polar Ice Caps store more water than all the Fresh Water Lakes on Earth. The Bad Weather Storms now are Babies compared to what is to come. They will get even bigger and worse less Oxygen the more UV Rays to the Earth and more Water molecules will evaporate and go up into the Earth’s Atmosphere. Less Oxygen the colder with out sun light and hotter with it. The Sky full of more water vapor molecules, more snow in the winter and more Flash Floods in the Summer. The Most Powerful Solar Flare Explosions ever recorded on the surface of the SUN. Are only getting more powerful as Astronomers and Scientist have recorded it down in history. If every living person on Earth were to Plant A Tree Today we might have a chance. The Earth’s Atmosphere Blanket surrounding it protects life on Earth as Our Lord and GOD will all that seek Him. Then it is written when the tree is full it is harvest time. All the Earth will someday burn away. This is all Foretold in the Bible Read it and may our Lord Bless all that do so. The Lord’s Little Helper Paul Felix Schott solardowork@yahoo.com KI4-AEX P.S. 2 Peter 3:10 But the day of the Lord will come like a thief, in which the heavens will pass away with a roar and the elements will be destroyed with intense heat, and the Earth and its works will be burned up.

Post a comment

Your name: *

Your email address: *

Comment text: *

The image that appears on your comment is your Gravatar