A new model finds that the world could be up to 5.5 degrees warmer in 2050 than it was in the 1990's.

A new model finds that the world could be up to 5.5 degrees warmer in 2050 than it was in the 1990's.

Global average temperatures will probably be between 1.4°C and 3°C (between about 2.5°F to 5.5°F) higher than they were from 1960 to 1990 by 2050 according to new study. Scientists picked one of 25 climate models used by the IPCC in a climate scenario called A1B, which assumes greenhouse gas emissions will generally continue to increase at their current levels, with some reduction in sulphate aerosols. In a 2007 report, the IPCC predicted that global temperatures would rise by about 1.5 to 2°C (about 2.5 to 3.5 °F) by 2050. The researchers then run the model thousands of times with slight perturbations to each climate detail. This was big project which included help of tens of thousands of people who allowed computer simulations to run in the background on their personal computers for up to six months because the job was too much for any one computer to deal with. This shows what citizen science can contribute to top-level scientific research.

Narrowing the model’s results to scenarios that were realistic based on past trends, the researchers report in the journal Nature Geoscience, that global temperatures could be as much as 3°C (5.4°F) higher in 40 years than they were in the 60’s through the 90’s. That kind of change could have profound effects on ecosystems, according to the IPCC, with higher rates of coral bleaching, extinctions and melting ice.


The new study, which used many thousands of personal computers to both refine and raise previous estimates of future temperatures, points out just how hard it is to predict the future of something as multi-faceted and complex as climate. When scientists meet to develop climate predictions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, they consider all available data on every conceivable detail that might influence climate, while also making a number of assumptions. Some of those assumptions have to do with human behavior and our projected levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Others are more technical, as scientists have to factor in how sure they are about the variables involved in processes like cloud formation around ice crystals or temperature mixing in the oceans. Much is still unknown about how all those processes work and how they ultimately contribute to temperature changes. (Discovery)
We can generate models with quite different climate responses over the next 50 years, and a large subset of those will look reasonable when compared with the last 50 years,”  Isaac Held, a climate modeler at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University in New Jersey said.

Comments

Urtica dioica 8 years ago

Here we go again with the greenie fearmongering. This site is nice, but crap-articles like this are like a poop floating in the soup!

Paul Felix Schott 8 years ago

The day will come when the Japan 9.0 Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011 will look like a kitten compared to a Lion when Greenland ice weight is lifted enough. No one will want to be by the North Atlantic Ocean Coast Line that Day. Or large water ways that lead into the North Atlantic Ocean. Latest Earthquake Magnitude 4.9 2012/03/30 11:19:20 79.942 0.985 9.9 GREENLAND SEA Read well and study on your own after you have read this. This is not a game or joke our Sun gives off a Solar Wind all day year round if you live in the State of Alaska you see it in the sky above what a sight it is going through our Earth’s Magnet Polls of the North and the South, North Poll. Its Called the Northern Lights or the Aurora Borealis. The day will come when you will be able to see it all over Earth as in the year 1859 Solar Flare, It was the largest in 500 years. Two Astronomer’s Hodgson and Carrington told the World that the Solar Flare made a Geomagnetic Storm reach Earth in hours not days. Back then it gave new meaning to Reach For The Skies from Telegraph Operators. For hours sparks flew from the key board. Even after the Batteries were disconnected. Nov 3 and 4, 2003 had a X40+ Class Solar Flare. Our Sun’s UV Rays will get stronger as each passing day go’s by, read and i will tell you why. The Great big forest have be striped from most of the Earth for Greed of Money by the Wicked. The trees our are Main Source of Oxygen on this Plant. The Forest Trees scrubs the Pollution out of the air and makes Oxygen from the rain and dirt that it grows in. The Forest Trees do more then just make Oxygen they stop Soil Erosion, just Look at the 1930 Dust Bowl. Greed by our Government taxes led farmers to clear cut all their Forest and farm all the land they were being Tax on. They had to farm it to pay for the Taxes. Why leave the Trees when food crop makes Money. This Did not Help the Depression that effected most all Worldwide. This year 2012 more then 100 million will suffer from Malnutrition and Dehydration. Many will die! In the United States of America alone more than 45 Million Americans Received Food Stamps and that number is going up every day every year. The Pollution and CO2 Carbon Dioxide go into the Tree Bark as a shield from most bugs so they do not eat the tree. Less Forest less Oxygen this is why the moon. That has no Oxygen is very cold on the side with out Sun Light, And hot as ever on the side with Sun Light. Way too cold and too hot to live there. You would need at least 10 times the Energy we use on Earth to even live there and life on the Moon would be very short. With no blank of Oxygen to lessen or reduce the Sun’s UV Rays and Solar Wind they are deadly there on our Moon. Every Mt. Climber and Aircraft Pilot knows the higher you go the thinner the Oxygen and colder it gets. Just spend a night on a Mt. top above 13,000 feet with no Sun Light and you will see or should i say feel the cold stinging any of your exposed skin. If you are new to Mt. Climbing stay below 10,000Ft. The Astronauts and the Cosmonauts and Fighter Pilots that i have been with for years know this very well, and the Radiation Hazards to humans at High Altitudes. Soon the Sun’s Solar Wind and UV rays will be way to strong for most to go out in the Sun Light for even a short time. The Geomagnetic Storm to come and the Bad Weather Storms well you have not seen nothing yet and the Sea Level is Rising the Oceans. Many Millions have been affected by Floods in China and Pakistan just last year. In 2005 Over a Thousand dead in New Orleans flood, and the list going on. And there shall be famines, and pestilences, and Earthquakes, in divers places such as was not from the beginning of the Creation. The last 30 years On Earth we have broke all high temp records and the temp it is still going up. All the Worlds Ice Glacier are melting at an Accelerating Rate. The Glaciers and Polar Ice Caps store more water than all the Fresh Water Lakes on Earth. The Bad Weather Storms now are Babies compared to what is to come. They will get even bigger and worse less Oxygen the more UV Rays to the Earth and more Water molecules will evaporate and go up into the Earth’s Atmosphere. Less Oxygen the colder with out sun light and hotter with it. The Sky full of more water vapor molecules, more snow in the winter and more Flash Floods in the Summer. All earth will see way more fires and the Deserts are growing larger. If every living person on Earth were to Plant A Tree Today we might have a chance. The Earth’s Atmosphere Blanket surrounding it protects life on Earth as Our Lord and GOD will all that seek Him. Then it is written when the tree is full it is harvest time. All the Earth will someday burn away. This is all Foretold in the Bible Read it and may our Lord Bless all that do so. The Lord’s Little Helper Paul Felix Schott solardowork@yahoo.com KI4-AEX P.S. 2 Peter 3:10 But the day of the Lord will come like a thief, in which the heavens will pass away with a roar and the elements will be destroyed with intense heat, and the Earth and its works will be burned up. GOD Bless You and Your Love ones Give thanks to our Lord Jesus Christ every day. Read Luke 21:20-22 Matthew 24: 30-33 Micah 7:13

Druach 8 years ago

Unfortunately, the ‘scientists’ used computer models used by the IPCC which are designed to con the world. As soon as anyone mentions the IPCC, a bunch of unelected nobodies who are responsible to no one, a whiff of evidential falsification should be evident in the air. These climate deceivers are perpetrating the greatest hoax ever thrown at the world and they should be brought before the highest court on the planet and face charges of attempted genocide for endangering the human population of the planet. There have been several warm periods during the present Holocene which were warmer than today by several degrees. The fact is, these warm periods coincided with great expansion of the then present human population i.e. the Minoan Warm Period, the Roman Climate Optimum, and the Medieval Warm Period. Humans like warm weather and thrive; we don’t do so well in a cold environment which is more likely with the current climate trends and the volcanic activity.

nanoduck 8 years ago

Honestly, I don't think most of us will still be around here 40 years into the future. 20 maybe, but that is a bit of stretch, considering how rapidly things are deteriorating on a global scale-- economy, environment, society, and so forth.

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