Record-breaking heat wave forecast from Midwest to Northeast, U.S.

NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is forecasting record-breaking heat to expand from the Midwest and Great Lakes to the Northeast this week, potentially lingering through early next week. The duration of this heat wave is notable and potentially the longest experienced in decades for some locations.

• The National Weather Service has issued warnings spanning the Midwest and East Coast, forecasting soaring temperatures in the 35 – 38 °C (95 – 100 °F) range and even higher.
• This heatwave, coinciding with Father’s Day celebrations, poses serious health risks, prompting the NWS and the CDC to advise residents to take extra precautions.
• Major cities from Chicago to New York City are expected to endure extreme heat, with some areas potentially feeling as hot as 41 °C (105 °F) when factoring in humidity.

The central and southern United States are bracing for the year’s most significant heatwave, with temperatures expected to reach potentially record-breaking highs.

The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued warnings for the Midwest and East Coast, predicting temperatures into the 35 – 38 °C (95 – 100 °F) range and beyond, just days ahead of the official start of summer. The heat index, which includes humidity, could make it feel even hotter.

The NWS has advised people in the South and Midwest to take precautions during outdoor activities, especially as Father’s Day celebrations coincide with this intense heat.

“Some of these areas will get temperatures up into the 32 – 37 °C (90 – 102 °F) and near 38 °C (100 °F),” said Tom Kines, a meteorologist with AccuWeather. “You throw in humidity, which makes it feel 9 or 10 degrees higher than that, and for a lot of people, it’s not going to be the best of weeks.”

The combination of high temperatures and humidity presents serious health risks. The NWS and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have highlighted that heat is the deadliest form of weather in the U.S., causing more fatalities annually than hurricanes and tornadoes combined.

The heatwave’s impact will be widespread, affecting major regions from the Midwest to the East Coast. The NWS Heat Risk map indicates a broad area of major heat from West Virginia to Kansas. Cities such as Chicago, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Detroit, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Boston, New York City, and Albany are all expected to experience extreme temperatures.

The NWS office in St. Louis has urged residents to take extra precautions on Sunday, June 16 — predicted to be the hottest day of the year. “It will feel like 38 – 40 °C (100 – 105 °F) during the afternoon hours. We aren’t used to this kind of heat yet,” forecasters wrote on social media.

“The duration of this heatwave is notable and potentially the longest experienced in decades for some locations,” WPC meteorologists said. This prolonged heat is attributed to a high-pressure system known as an upper-level ridge, which is expanding over the Midwest and East Coast, creating clear skies and stable, warm air.

The final Sunday of spring will see temperatures in the 35 – 38 °C (95 – 100 °F) range across the Plains and Midwest, with the Great Lakes region expecting temperatures up to 32 °C (89 °F). The Mississippi River Valley is predicted to face the most severe conditions, with a Level 3 major heat risk in large portions of several states.

Morning lows will be just as impressive, as temperatures remain in the mid to even 24 – 26 °C (75 – 79 °F), according to the WPC. This lack of overnight cooling will exacerbate the heat-related impacts, particularly for those without adequate hydration or reliable cooling.

As the week progresses, the sweltering conditions will spread into the eastern and northeastern U.S. By Tuesday, temperatures in cities like Chicago could hit 34 °C (94 °F), with the heat index reaching 36 °C (97 °F). The potential for record-breaking heat will continue across the Ohio Valley and the Northeast through Friday, with heat indices possibly reaching 41 °C (105 °F).

“Typically, it’s July and August when we get this kind of heat,” said Kines. “It’s definitely early.”

The NWS is also monitoring the possibility of tropical storm development in the Gulf of Mexico, which could add another layer of complexity to the weather pattern.

In Buffalo, New York, the public school system has announced half days for four out of five school days this week to ensure students are not exposed to extreme heat during peak afternoon hours.

References:

¹ Climate Prediction Center forecast – CPC – June 16, 2024

²Short Range Public Discussion – WPC – June 16, 2024

³ Crazy weather week coming to the US: From searing heat to snow. Yes, snow. 13:28 ET – USA Today – June 16, 2024

Featured image credit: NOAA/NWS/WPC