Study: Modern Grand Solar Minimum (2020 - 2053) leads to cooling, important implications for entire planet

Study: Modern Grand Solar Minimum (2020 - 2053) leads to cooling, important implications for entire planet

In a new study published recently in the journal Temperature, Prof. Valentina Zharkova demonstrates that the Sun has entered into the modern Grand Solar Minimum (2020 - 2053) that will lead to a significant reduction of the solar magnetic field and activity like during Maunder minimum leading to a noticeable reduction of terrestrial temperature.

  • This can have important implications for different parts of the planet on growing vegetation, agriculture, food supplies, and heating needs in both the northern and southern hemispheres during the next 30 years.
  • This global cooling during the upcoming grand solar minimum can offset for three decades any signs of global warming and would require inter-government efforts to tackle problems with heat and food supplies for the whole population of the Earth.

"Sun is the main source of energy for all planets of the solar system," Prof. Zharkova states. "This energy is delivered to Earth in a form of solar radiation in different wavelengths, called total solar irradiance. Variations of solar irradiance lead to heating of upper planetary atmosphere and complex processes of solar energy transport toward a planetary surface."

Zharkova demonstrates that recent progress with the understanding of the role of solar background magnetic field in defining solar activity and with quantifying the observed magnitudes of the magnetic field at different times enabled reliable long-term prediction of solar activity on a millennium timescale.

This approach revealed the presence of not only 11-year solar cycles but also of grand solar cycles with a duration of 350 - 400 years.

"These grand cycles are formed by the interferences of two magnetic waves with close but not equal frequencies produced by the double solar dynamo action at different depths of the solar interior. These grand cycles are always separated by grand solar minima of Maunder minimum type, which regularly occurred in the past forming well-known Maunder, Wolf, Oort, Homeric, and other grand minima," Zharkova noted.

"During these grand solar minima, there is a significant reduction of the solar magnetic field and solar irradiance, which impose the reduction of terrestrial temperatures derived for these periods from the analysis of terrestrial biomass during the past 12 000 or more years." 

(Figure 1) Top plot: two principal components (PCs) of solar background magnetic field (blue and green curves, arbitrary numbers) obtained for cycles 21 - 23 (historic data) and predicted for cycles 24 - 26 using the mathematical formulae derived from the historical data. The bottom plot: The summary curve derived from the two PCs above for the “historical” data (cycles 21 - 23) and predicted for solar cycle 24 (2008 - 2019), cycle 25 (2020 - 2031), cycle 26 (2031 - 2042).

(Figure 3) Solar activity (summary) curve restored for 1200 - 3300 AD.

The most recent grand solar minimum occurred during the Maunder Minimum -- which lasted 65 years, from 1645 to 1710.

During this period, the temperatures across much of the northern hemisphere plunged. This likely occurred because the total solar irradiance was reduced by 0.22% that led to a decrease of the average terrestrial temperature measured mainly in the northern hemisphere in Europe by 1.0 – 1.5 °C (1.8 - 2.7 °F). This seemingly small decrease in the average temperature in the northern hemisphere led to frozen rivers, cold long winters, and cold summers.

"The discovery of double dynamo action in the Sun brought us a timely warning about the upcoming grand solar minimum when solar magnetic field and its magnetic activity will be reduced by 70%."

Zharkova states that this period has started in the Sun in 2020 and expects it to last until 2053.

During this modern grand minimum, one would expect to see a reduction of the average terrestrial temperature by up to 1.0 °C (1.8 °F), especially, during the periods of solar minima between the cycles 25 - 26 and 26 - 27, e.g. in the decade 2031 - 2043.

(Figure 2) Top plot: The modulus summary curve (black curve) obtained from the summary curve (Figure 1, bottom plot) versus the averaged sunspot numbers (red curve) for the historical data (cycles 21 - 23). Bottom plot: The modulus summary curve associated with the sunspot numbers derived for cycles 21 - 23 (and calculated for cycles 24 - 26).

"The reduction of a terrestrial temperature during the next 30 years can have important implications for different parts of the planet on growing vegetation, agriculture, food supplies, and heating needs in both northern and southern hemispheres. This global cooling during the upcoming grand solar minimum (2020–2053) can offset for three decades any signs of global warming and would require inter-government efforts to tackle problems with heat and food supplies for the whole population of the Earth."

Reference:

"Modern Grand Solar Minimum will lead to terrestrial cooling" - Valentina Zharkova (2020) - Temperature - DOI: 10.1080/23328940.2020.1796243 - OPEN ACCESS

Featured image: Sunset over Phoenix, Arizona. Credit: Alexander Nie

Comments

Swift Corwin 17 days ago

https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/ I’ll go with NASA’s take. Yes there may be a global solar minimum for the next 30 years. But it will have only a minor effect in mitigating carbon and other climate affecting gasses.

Randy Winton (@Swift Corwin) 3 days ago

The political NASA today is not the scientific NASA of years past. NASA itself says it must contract out the science. It's annual budget must be approved by the President -- Under Trump NASA was going back to the Moon and then Mars -- Under Biden and Obama NASA is back to funding projects that support the green agendas.

Bruce Lee (@Swift Corwin) 13 days ago

You lost me at "I'll go with NASA's take." It's funny how someone can be shown the data, that has been verified by the worlds top scientist in the field, and still say facts don't matter, just my feeling. Even major science publications came out saying this lady was wrong, only to write retractions a couple months later. But you keep trusting NASA, see how that works out.

YeahSure 3 months ago

Man-made climate change is an illusion used to push political agenda and take your hard earned money. I was taught the number one factor effecting climate change is solar activity. Other factors include but are not limited to volcanic activity, ocean currents, and vegetation. The amount of oxygen produced by the algae in the oceans alone is enough to offset the small amount of co2 produced by mankind. The idea that our tiny carbon footprint could compare to the massive amounts of co2 produced annually by volcanic activity around the world is arrogant and borderline psychotic. That would be like throwing a match on a nuclear blast and claiming the match was responsible for all the destruction. "Oh but Rachel Madcow said." Anybody who believes in man-made climate change is delusional at best.

John Swallow (@YeahSure) 2 months ago

Thank you for showing that some people do know the truth about this far left hoax of anthropogenic climate change.

Clifford Whitehead (@YeahSure) 2 months ago

"The amount of oxygen produced by the algae in the oceans alone is enough to offset the small amount of co2 produced by mankind". you are right, the problem is the entire pacific ocean is now irradiated from the Fukushima nuclear disaster and algae is dying because of it.

John Snider 3 months ago

With record lows being set and what seems to be a trend of Polar Vortex sticking around, I'm wondering if we are for thirty years of the stuff.

David Byars 3 months ago

The reason I became interested in the Grand Solar Minimum was my on discovery. My shortwave reception is in the toilet. I am a ham operator from long ago (1964) 10 meter,20 meter,even 40 meter bands are dead. This is real. The charge of the upper atmosphere determines the refraction of radio waves. This is the whole principal of short wave radio.I have always known about the eleven year cycle. However, the poor performance of my equipment is the poorest I had ever experienced. I began researching and seeing the lack of consistency between the story being promoted by the government. Snow storms in the Saudi desert,record cold all over. This was being reported by the Weather Channel with no explanation. Now look outside February 14th,crazy weather record cold. Looks to me like the Grand Solar Minimum is happening. Until it worms up I think the Russian scientist is looking more correct.

Thomas Cratch 3 months ago

I am not a scientist just a normal citizen of the USA. I have been following this research for months know. This study is not the only one out there. NOAA has published the same results. It is not getting attention because it does not fit the Agenda of those that hold to Global Warming. If the data is true and elected officials refuse to inform the public of what might happen it could be catastrophic. The true test to any data is time. If this does come to pass and no action is taken to prepare for it then when it does come it will be to late to prepare. Whole Governments around the world are hell bent on the agenda of Global Warming. They want listen to any of these Scientific findings even though they are coming from their on government agencies. I was always taught to plan for the worse and hope for the best. It never hurts to be prepared. But when information is with held from the citizens their choice to decide for themselves is taken away. That holds true with any truth. As an American freedom of choice and truth is everything. Lose that and you have no freedom at all.

Geoff Noakes (@Thomas Cratch) 13 days ago

Thomas, may I ask you to send me a link to the NOAA report that essentially had the same results? Thanks... Geoff

steven collier 4 months ago

i have news for gerry macallister...the colder winters and summers are caused by a weakening jet stream that oscillates further south due to the affects of a sun in a grand solar minimum period...this can cause hot summer spells when it brings up hotter air but only temporary,the trend is for intensifying colder winters and summers

Thomas Edward Magner 8 months ago

In south Florida we could use a little cooling.

G T (@Thomas Edward Magner) 8 months ago

Invest in some warm clothing Sir

mark mulligan 8 months ago

As frozen methane hydrate sublimes from land and marine permafrost into the atmosphere with 25? times the greenhouse power of CO2, this 1 degree cooling blip will be like opening the refrigerator door in a fully evolved house fire. Plant local biomass at every altitude (shoreline and watershed) and latitude (biozone) boundary, as a World War COVID first priority, or watch your house and the planet burn down. And stop quibbling ego-driven quibbles, please.

Boris Berejan (@mark mulligan) 2 months ago

Nonsense. CO2 levels in the geologic past were 7000 ppm in Cambrian era. And we DIDN'T see run away global warming. The SUN drives climate. And the Sun is going to cool for about 30 years.

EasyEight (@mark mulligan) 4 months ago

Ahhh...so now we have a new boogeyman to fear, methane hydrates! When I was a kid, we needed to save the planet from the manmade New Ice Age caused by soot and emissions from oil and coal fired power plants. Since nuclear bad, we needed to switch to the "clean" fossil fuel - Natural Gas to stop the pollution causing the New Ice Age. Oh, and to stop Acid Rain and the Killer Bees and whatnot as well, yes? It's the end of the world so give us power and money and we'll save you! Then when that didn't happen and the planet warmed, we needed to end all Fossil Fuels, including Natural Gas, to prevent the trace gas CO2 from causing manmade Global Warming...never you mind that NG combustion emits minimal CO2! We need to stop it, and since nuclear bad, use nothing but "renewable" solar and wind...and never you mind about the massive CO2 emissions produced manufacturing solar panels and wind farms! It's the end of the world so give us power and money and we'll save you! And still the predicted warming didn't appear -- The Pause was being masked the Deep Ocean Conveyor Currents or something, something something! Stop questioning the Science you heretical deniers!! It's the end of the world so give us power and money and we'll save you! And now it's methane hydrates...gotta stop the warming that will be caused by methane hydrates, it's the end of the world so give us power and money and we'll save you!

Joost (@EasyEight) 4 months ago

I am on your side; when they give us their money, we will do everything we can to prevent climate change, although it will probably not make a difference in the real world ..

Larry G Robinson (@mark mulligan) 8 months ago

Sir, that one degree in the upper atmosphere translates into huge drops on the surface. We will dang sure wish there was a fire to keep us warm. Bone up on your history, learn the science. Not the dogma of "we will save you, give us your money"

G T (@Larry G Robinson) 8 months ago

The only quibble, is with lac of understanding that the Sun, the positioning of the sun and earth is the diving force to whats happening. The new evidence and new discovery the author of this post made is being ignored and symptomatically discredited by people with other agendas . If you do not have an other agenda then read her work over and over till it sinks in.

Jamal Shrair 8 months ago

GT, I have obtained further proof to what I stated in my previous comment. Do you think that everyone is an internet hooligan like you? I know all the top mainstream Ukraine solar and astrophysicists, since 1960s. However, you did not understand what I wrote in the previous comment and I am not surprised

Gregory Miller (@Jamal Shrair) 8 months ago

Oh the all superior Jamal who has yet to publish how his theory of everything fits all data better than anybody. I've been waiting a year for you to reply back to the "we predicted earthquakes" BS you wrote. Or the "everything we see is helical universe" BS you always write. Why can't I find you in ars Physics or anywhere else? Why don't you ever use math? You just talk BS.

G T (@Gregory Miller) 8 months ago

Further proof , back using the Crystal Balls then are we and don't call me a hologram again, its far too three dimensional , for someone with such a low intelligence quotient as I have

Gerry McAllister 8 months ago

i have news for Steve Collier. A big summer heat wave can prove the sun is on high. The winter cold wave will not prove the sun is on low. The cold winter in the southern hemisphere is based on wind. The cold air from the south pole is the problem. If the sun is on high the heat can start at the equator. The extra heat will travel to the south pole. The cold air at the south pole must move.

goldminor 8 months ago

It will take another 5 years at least to determine what is taking place in nature. The ENSO regions have been cooling strongly over the last 4 months. My prediction is for a major La Nina of around 2 years in length. That means global cooling. Global cooling is always a matter of the oceans cooling down. The opposite also holds true. This could also turn into a deeper cold spell, if SC25 turns out to be extra weak. I also expect the cooling trend in the ENSO regions to be the stronger side of its two states of warm/cool for the next 16 to 18 years. That should mean a general cooling into the late 2030s. That cooling can be either a weak event or a stronger event. It is going to be interesting to watch.

G T 8 months ago

Hi Jamal , If you don't know what Valentina discovered why are you even typing . I never said she worked for NASA . She is a Professor from the Ukraine who works in Somewhere other than NASA.

Flint_lock_97 8 months ago

Thirty years ago, the media push for AGW began. Seas were going to rise, glaciers to melt, famines, death, drought, etc etc. In the end, there was no warming or drought, only government faked data, leaked conspiratorial emails, propaganda and the rise of socialist tyranny. And there is still snow. It's never a good idea to try to predict the weather more than a few weeks out, let alone staking our whole future on an uncertain interpretation of the complexities of the planet. While I am intrigued by the science behind a potential onset of an Eddy minimum, and Ms Zharkova's take on the state of the sun, real world effects seem only anecdotally correlative at this point - at best. All I can advise is that if deep cold and ice is your story, you'd better deliver.

Roj Blkae (@Flint_lock_97) 7 months ago

A well considered comment. However those who study the Earths climate history and especially the cycles of the sun, bit long and short have known for some time now that a long term cooling was on thew cards. Whenever when Governments and the media start jumping up and down about something you always have to connect one word to it "agenda". Those with no agenda, those who just study climate history will tell you the truth. It will get colder in the coming decades, history has shown it.

Gregory Miller (@Flint_lock_97) 8 months ago

Its in a section of my 1980 freshman chemistry book. It was mentioned in scientific literature in the 1940's. The Oil Companies began hiding data on it in the 1050's. Blow your socialist tyranny out your ass.

Bill H (@Gregory Miller) 8 months ago

"The Oil Companies began hiding data on it in the 1050's." I did not know the oil companies predated the Norman conquest of the British Isles. Hell of a chemistry course you took, don't you think?

Gregory Miller (@Bill H) 8 months ago

Ya, I knew God as a child too. Full-Metal Alchemist too. Sorry for the typo. 1950.

Jamal Shrair 8 months ago

No, I do not have crystal ball, naive GT, I have special mind, like so many other researchers who cannot be infected by the myths and pseudoscience, even if this pseudoscience is held by 7 billion solar physicists. What did Valentina discover? And, do not tell me that Valentina and her brilliant team is the leading authority of the solar physicists at NASA. The predictions of the top solar physicists at NASA for the last solar cycles came out to be exactly the opposite. But, of course, people like you are simple minded and believe everything the media tells them. Those people are called sheeples and they are the absolute majority. Let me give you a piece of advice, naïve G T. Do not argue with Jamal Shrair when it comes to the Sun. Do you know why? Because, he can at anytime publish 30 pages research paper that will devastate the entire establishment of NASA and all mainstream solar physicists around the world. And, the technological developments based on the facts present in this paper can make our world a billion times better

Gregory Miller (@Jamal Shrair) 8 months ago

Yes. Do not argue with Jamal Shrair about the sun. Particularly using calculations. Calculations are not fair to Jamal Shrair.

G T (@Jamal Shrair) 8 months ago

Send you'er Curriculum Vitae to NASA along with you'er 30 pages of mythical dribble and don't let the revolving door spank you on the way out . Numpty

Bill H (@G T) 8 months ago

"You'er" is a weird, woke way to spell "You're". Rather than worrying about Jamal being hit by a revolving door you may wish to improve your proofing skills. Just sayin'.

G T (@Bill H) 8 months ago

Thank you for you're constructive criticism Bill , I can only assure you that my typing was better than my walking after 13 beers , I do get drunk but never stupid enough to fall for the BS . English is only my second language

Gregory Miller (@Bill H) 8 months ago

The typo police are out in force. Thats what people do when they have an education but nothing substantial to say? Oh ya, I left out the apostrophe out on purpose, just for you.

b.d 8 months ago

de la neige oui oui oui

G T (@b.d) 8 months ago

Brass balls will be Mandatory ❄☃

Gerry McAllister 8 months ago

jump over sunspots. look at Death Valley. The temperature is 130,there is more heat from the sun in 2020.

Anthony (@Gerry McAllister) 8 months ago

and so it was in the 1930's, where 130F was common

André (@Gerry McAllister) 8 months ago

The elevation profile of the magnetic field line trunking has never been this low at the coordinates of the magnetic north and south poles in 2020 (check it in Google Earth with the coordinates of NOAA). Hotter in the north and colder in the south. But the LOMONOSOV ridge is already making itself felt

G T 8 months ago

Jamal you have a crystal ball ....... Valentina has discovered something nobody in this world has ever discovered before , she has also a team of brilliant people who helped her develop ,computations to prove her predictions . Providing evidence and real science . But Ha Ho lets just go with the crystal balls . No chance of setting fire to the underpants her then :-)

prioris (@G T) 8 months ago

As long as Jamal is sincere, I have no problems respecting his position. We are trending to major solar minimum. We can only make an educated guess what the Sun will do. Here is the bright side. In 4-5 years, the debate between you and Jamal will be settled. For humanities sake, I hope Jamal is wrong. Increased geomagnetic storms are a greater threat to earth.

steve collier 8 months ago

the southern hemisphere just had coldest winter for many years..the northern hemisphere will suffer colder temperatures still this winter due to being more land area...could be major power cuts

Thomas Edward Magner 8 months ago

I live in south Florida. Any cooling would be nice.

Bill H 8 months ago

Remember that old song, "I'm dreaming of a white Christmas"? In my state we have not seen a white Christmas in five years, five years. In 2019 we were at 60 degrees F. My area of the USA has not seen a hard winter in half a decade. The ski hills are all quietly going out-of-business. Global Warming is here.

John Snider (@Bill H) 3 months ago

Bill, I'm curious, what is the temperature at your place today?

G T (@Bill H) 8 months ago

Hi Bill , I agree 100% global warming is here . its not man made, we are exciting an ice age . We are polluting the planet , without a shadow of doubt and every effort should be made to stop the pollution ( but it won't happen ) the greedy people are in control . CO 2 makes the oceans acidic but does not cause warming . The sun heats this planet and all the planets , all the planets are heating up ALL the planets are heating up . We have not polluted the other planets yet . If and more probably when Valentina Zharkova is proven correct , there will be a pause in the warming and it will get shit kicking cold in the Northern Hemisphere, in the winter .

Bill H (@G T) 8 months ago

"the greedy people are in control" Really? Real unemployment is 20% and the GDP has collapsed 20% in just a quarter. The food system is shutting down and bread lines are forming. You are just going to love 2020. BTW, I hope you or your children are in one of those lines.

Mark (@Bill H) 8 months ago

Hoping people or their children are in breadlines....you are a selfish socialist ass. Nice.....I don't even wish that on you or your kids...though you're still an idiot. Typical Leftists....always wishing harm on people who won't "go along with the narrative."

William Allison 8 months ago

1. A key citation in Zharkova's paper was retracted on March 4, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-61020-3 2. Her speculations and the actions of the media in uncritically promoting them were discussed and debunked by Brown, 2015. https://theconversation.com/the-mini-ice-age-hoopla-is-a-giant-failure-of-science-communication-45037

prioris (@William Allison) 8 months ago

You do know that what they wrote below is nonsense "In plain English, the small change in sunlight reaching the Earth during a new Maunder minimum wouldn’t be enough to reverse climate change. For the technically minded, even a 3 W per m2 change in irradiance corresponds to a radiative forcing of just 0.5 W per m2 (because the Earth is a sphere and not a flat circle), which is less than the radiative forcing produced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases." This is written by someone bowing at the altar to global warming and mainstream science. Your perpetuating global warming propaganda. The grand/major solar minimum is centered cosmic rays being absorbed by earth's atmosphere etc global warming lie is dead unless the trends of the sun change.

William Allison (@prioris) 8 months ago

I'll take mainstream science over conspiracy theory any day.

Jamal Shrair 8 months ago

If you review the predictions of the last two solar cycles that were made by the leading authority of solar physics, you will find out that those predictions were exactly the opposite with the actual solar activities. Now, I also assure you that the prediction of Valentina Zharkova is wrong and the biggest solar maximum ever, will take place within the next two years. At the present time, the sun is very close to its highest position in the galaxy, and that is the reason why even with the lack of sunspots, the sun is brighter than ever and emitting very intense gamma rays. In other words, solar minimum does not always mean reduction of the solar magnetic field and activity. However, the amount of galactic cosmic rays that hits the sun will decrease after the sun starts descending from its highest position. When this process starts, huge sunspots will emerge and the biggest solar maximum ever will take place

prioris (@Jamal Shrair) 8 months ago

Your prediction of the biggest solar maximum ever in two years would greatly increase the odds for a geomagnetic storm catastrophe on earth. If your right, it's lights out for earth's population. I do think Ben Davidson of suspiciousobservers YT channel will make the most correct prediction. I've always marked the beginning of the grand / major solar minimum as 2016 since It's all downhill from there on.

G T 8 months ago

Winter is coming ... not a flippant comment https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_yqIj38UmY

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