Tropical Storm “Jongdari” forms, landfall expected just south of Tokyo, Japan

Tropical Storm "Jongdari" formed July 24, 2018, as the 11^th named storm of the 2018 Pacific typhoon season. Jongdari continued strengthening on July 25 and is expected to become a typhoon before it makes landfall just south of Tokyo on July 28. There is still plenty of time and uncertainty and the system could still change its track.

At 15:00 UTC on July 25, the center of Tropical Storm "Jongdari" was located approximately 496 km (308 miles) southwest of Iwo To, Japan and has tracked NNE at 11 km/h (7 mph) over the past 6 hours. Jongdari had maximum sustained winds of 84 km/h (52 mph) at the time, and gusts to 102 km/h (64 mph).

Tropical Storm "Jongdari" at 18:20 UTC on July 25, 2018. Tropical Storm "Wukong" is located east of Japan. However, this storm is weakening and moving away from the country. Credit: JMA/Himawari-8, RAMMB/CIRA

Upper-level analysis performed by JTWC meteorologists indicates a favorable environment with improving poleward and equatorward outflow and low vertical wind shear.

Jongdari is forecast to continue tracking along the northern periphery of the near-equatorial ridge over the next 36 hours. After that, the system will accelerate northeastward to northward through 15:00 UTC, July 28 as the steering ridge to the east strengthens.

During that time, Jongdari is expected to intensify to a peak of 185 km/h (115 mph), turn west and make landfall south of Tokyo sometime on July 28.

However, there is currently a significant uncertainty in the exact trajectory and timing.

Featured image: Tropical Storm "Jongdari" at 18:20 UTC on July 25, 2018. Credit: JMA/Himawari-8, RAMMB/CIRA