Get ready, Europe: Significant cold outbreak expected

Current forecast models suggest a very cold air mass will descend from the Arctic down to the Mediterranean Sea over the next 10 days, reaching possibly as far south as northern Africa.

If the models play out, central Europe, Balkan Peninsula, and Italy will see a temporary end of spring and experience a brief return of winter temperatures. Below or near freezing temperatures to much of the region, snow, not just at higher elevations, and frost could wreak havoc on agriculture and, in the long run, result in an increase in food prices.

Although it is still too early for details, the event is not expected to be as extreme as in January when temperatures as low as -30 °C (-22 °F), and more in some areas, affected much of the south-central and eastern Europe for weeks.

GFS 850 hPa temperature anomaly

GFS 2-meter temperature anomaly

ECMWF 850 hPa temperature anomaly

GFS – Total accumulated precipitation

GFS – Total snowfall, including sleet

Update

GFS 850 hPa model run 06:00 UTC, April 15. 

Featured image: GFS 850 hPa temperature anomaly, Europe – April 20, 2017. Credit: TropicalTidbits.com