Active Region 1817 erupted with moderate solar flare peaking as M1.5 at 10:41 UTC on August 12, 2013. AR 1817 has Beta magnetic configuration and is located in Sun's southern hemisphere. It is still growing and rotating into geoeffective position. Any new eruption will have a potential for Earth directed eruptions. STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery show Coronal Mass Ejection heading mostly towards the south.
Last time we saw M-class solar flare was on July 3, 2013 when M1.5 solar flare erupted from active region located on eastern limb.
NOAA SWPC forecasters estimated 10% chance for an M-class, and 1% chance for an X-class flare today.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. 5 of them are located in southern hemisphere. Region 1818 has Beta-Gamma magnetic field and is capable of producing strong solar flares. Source of yesterday's C8.4 flare and today's M1.5, Region 1817, is still classified with Beta magnetic field same as neighbouring Region 1819 and Region 1813 which is now becoming farside region. Region 1814 is located almost at the center of the disk and is classified with Alpha magnetic field.
Regions 1817 and 1818 continue to show significant growth.
Solar activity is expected to be low in next 30 days with a chance for M-class activity from August 12 - 22. The activity is expected mainly from Regions 1817 and 1818 as they continue to develop in spot area and complexity.
Featured image: Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams